Realized price explained: estimating what Bitcoin holders paid
Market price tells you what the last trade was. Realized price estimates what the coins in circulation cost when they last moved. Here is how it is built, worked through with numbers.
Photo: “Flying Pigeon LA bike shop price tags” by ubrayj02, CC BY 2.0, via Flickr (edited: cropped and resized).
Realized price is realized cap divided by the number of coins in circulation. Realized cap values each coin at the price on the day it last moved on-chain, rather than today’s price [1], so realized price works as a rough estimate of the average cost basis of all holders [2].
Key points
- 1Realized cap adds up every coin at the price when it last moved; realized price divides that total by the supply.
- 2It is an estimate of the average purchase price, built on the assumption that a coin moving on-chain means it changed hands.
- 3When market price sits above realized price, holders are in profit on aggregate; below it, they hold paper losses on aggregate.
- 4Lost coins, internal transfers and exchange wallet shuffles all bend the number, so treat it as approximate.
On this page
- What is a cost basis, and why estimate it on-chain?
- How is realized price calculated, step by step?
- Why does realized price change when coins move?
- How do analysts read realized price?
- Where did realized cap come from?
- What are the limits of realized price?
- What mistakes do beginners make here?
- Frequently asked questions
- The bottom line
- Sources
What is a cost basis, and why estimate it on-chain?#
Your cost basis is what you paid for an asset. If you bought one coin at $100 and it trades at $150, you have a paper gain of $50; at $80 you have a paper loss of $20. In stock markets, nobody can see the cost basis of all investors at once. On Bitcoin, every coin sits in an output that records when it was created, so analysts can look up the price on that day and estimate what the market as a whole paid.
That is the idea behind realized capitalization (realized cap). Coin Metrics defines it as the sum, across all units, of their USD value at the closing price on the day each unit last moved [1]. Realized price simply spreads that total across the supply, giving a per-coin figure you can put on the same chart as the market price [2].
Realized price = Σ (coins × price on the day they last moved) ÷ coins in circulationThe top half of the fraction is realized cap. Market cap, by contrast, multiplies every coin by today’s price. For UTXO chains such as Bitcoin, “last moved” means the date the output was created [1].
How is realized price calculated, step by step?#
The Coin Metrics documentation uses a tiny three-holder ledger to show the method [1]. We reuse those holdings below and extend the arithmetic to realized price and a hypothetical market price. All numbers are illustrative, not real Bitcoin data.
| Holder | Coins and last-move price | Realized value | Value at $80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | 100 at $0 | $0 | $8,000 |
| B | 1,000 at $10 | $10,000 | $80,000 |
| C | 500 at $100 | $50,000 | $40,000 |
| Total | 1,600 coins | $60,000 (realized cap) | $128,000 (market cap) |
Ledger holdings and the $60,000 realized cap follow the Coin Metrics example; the $80 market price and every figure derived from it are hypothetical.
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| Realized cap = 0 + 10,000 + 50,000 | $60,000 |
| Realized price = 60,000 ÷ 1,600 coins | $37.50 |
| Market cap = 1,600 × $80 (hypothetical) | $128,000 |
| Market price ÷ realized price = 80 ÷ 37.50 | ≈ 2.13 |
| Holder C’s paper result = 500 × (80 − 100) | −$10,000 |
On aggregate this market is in profit, because $80 is above the $37.50 realized price. Yet holder C is in a loss. Realized price is an average: it hides who is winning and who is losing.
Same coins, two valuations
Why does realized price change when coins move?#
Realized cap only changes when coins move. Suppose holder C sells all 500 coins at $80 to a new buyer. The coins land in new outputs created on a day when the price was $80, so they are now valued at $80 instead of $100.
| Step | Value |
|---|---|
| C’s coins revalued = 500 × $80 | $40,000 |
| New realized cap = 0 + 10,000 + 40,000 | $50,000 |
| New realized price = 50,000 ÷ 1,600 | $31.25 |
| Change in realized price = 31.25 − 37.50 | −$6.25 |
Spending at a loss pulls realized price down; spending at a profit pushes it up. Coins that never move keep their old valuation forever — which is exactly why lost coins matter.
How do analysts read realized price?#
The most common reading is simple. When the market price is above realized price, holders are in profit on aggregate; when it is below, they are sitting on paper losses on aggregate [2]. Some analysts treat the realized price as a kind of floor or “fair value” line, but that is a convention, not a law — price has traded below it before.
| What you see | How some analysts read it | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|
| Price far above realized price | Large unrealized profits; more holders may be tempted to sell | When or whether they will sell |
| Price near realized price | Average holder roughly breaking even | That a bounce is due |
| Price below realized price | Market-wide paper losses; often described as stress | That the bottom has been reached |
| Realized price rising | Coins are changing hands at higher prices than they last moved | Who is buying, or why |
Look Into Bitcoin notes that periods with market price below realized price have historically lined up with major cycle lows [2]. Bitcoin has had only a few such cycles, so this is a small-sample observation. The same comparison, written as a ratio of market cap to realized cap, is the MVRV ratio; Glassnode describes readings above 3.5 and below 1 as having historically coincided with late bull phases and bear-market lows respectively [3]. Treat those levels as conventions some analysts use, never as triggers.
Where did realized cap come from?#
Coin Metrics credits realized cap to a 2018 talk by Nic Carter and says the original goal was to discount long-lost coins: a significant fraction of Bitcoin has not moved since 2010 and can be presumed lost, yet market cap values it at today’s price [1]. Look Into Bitcoin credits Antoine Le Calvez with creating realized cap in 2018 [2]. Both sources agree on the year and on the method; they differ on attribution.
What are the limits of realized price?#
The whole metric rests on one assumption, which Look Into Bitcoin states openly: that a movement from one wallet to another is a purchase [2]. Often it is not. Moving your own coins to a new wallet, an exchange shuffling its cold storage, or the change output of an ordinary payment all re-price coins without any sale.
- Lost coins. Coins that never move stay valued at their very old price. In our ledger, holder A’s 100 coins at $0 drag the average down: without them, realized price would be $60,000 ÷ 1,500 = $40.00.
- Internal transfers. Self-sends re-price coins at the current price even though nobody bought them. Change outputs are a frequent case, because most Bitcoin payments return change to the sender [4].
- Daily closing price. Coin Metrics values each unit at the closing price on the day it last moved [1], not the price of the actual trade.
- One number for everyone. Recent buyers and decade-old holders are blended together. Cohort versions split them apart; see long-term vs short-term holders.
Realized price at a glance
What mistakes do beginners make here?#
- Calling it “the average price people paid”
It is the average price at which coins last moved. Internal transfers and change outputs count as “purchases” in the formula.
- Treating it as a price floor
Market price has fallen below realized price in past bear markets. The line can be crossed in either direction.
- Ignoring lost coins
Coins lost early in Bitcoin’s history are still in the calculation at near-zero prices, pulling the average down.
- Assuming your own position matches the average
An aggregate profit can hide large losses for recent buyers, as holder C showed in the example.
Frequently asked questions#
What is the difference between realized price and market price?
Market price is the latest trading price. Realized price is realized cap divided by supply: an estimate of the average price at which coins last moved [2].
What is the difference between realized price and realized cap?
Realized cap is the total value of all coins at their last-moved prices. Realized price divides that total by the supply, so it is comparable with the market price instead of the market cap.
Can realized price be calculated for Ethereum?
Coin Metrics computes realized cap for account-based chains too, using the last date an account sent funds or was created as its last-activity date [1]. The result is coarser than on UTXO chains, because one account holds a single blended balance.
Why do different websites show different realized prices?
Providers make different choices about price sources, change detection and exchange wallets. Compare the metric with its own history from a single provider.
Is buying below realized price a good idea?
This page does not give buying or selling advice. Realized price describes past on-chain movements; it does not forecast returns.
The bottom line#
Realized price is a clever estimate: it uses the timestamps on every coin to approximate what the market as a whole paid. Its strengths are that it is transparent and easy to compute; its weaknesses are the assumption that every movement is a trade and the weight of coins lost long ago.
To see the same idea as a single ratio, read the MVRV ratio profile, and for the full metric definition see realized price and realized cap.
Sources#
Grade A = primary source (regulator, protocol specification, client code, original author). Grade B = expert secondary source used for explanation only.
- BCoin Metrics Data Knowledge Base. Market Capitalization (incl. Realized Market Cap and MVRV), 2026.
- BLook Into Bitcoin (Bitcoin Magazine Pro). Realized Price, 2026.
- BGlassnode Docs. MVRV Ratio (metric guide), 2026.
- Abitcoin.org developer documentation. Developer Guide: Transactions, 2026.
- BGlassnode Docs. STH-MVRV (metric guide), 2026.
Keep reading
Long-term vs short-term holders: how on-chain analysts split the market
Analysts sort Bitcoin’s supply into coins that move often and coins that sit still. The dividing line is a statistical choice — here is where it comes from and how far you can trust it.
What is on-chain analysis? Reading the public ledger in plain English
Every Bitcoin transaction is recorded in public. On-chain analysis is the practice of turning that record into numbers people can study — with clear rules about what the numbers can and cannot prove.
Exchange inflows and outflows: how to read coins moving to and from exchanges
Exchange flow charts track coins arriving at and leaving wallets that analysts believe belong to exchanges. The arithmetic is simple; knowing which wallets are exchanges is the hard part.