Glassnode Week 43: realized cap and ETF MVRV explained

Glassnode's BTC Market Pulse for Week 43, published on 2026-10-19, found bitcoin near $82k after a week roughly 2% lower, with on-chain data pointing to coins moving into newer hands. This article sets aside the price and looks at the capital-flow metrics behind that conclusion: what each one counts, how it is built, and where it can mislead.

What the Week 43 report shows

According to Glassnode, the wave of selling seen in the early October slide is gone, though no new wave of demand has stepped in. A Thursday dip held just above $80k. The firm summed up the week as easing sell pressure while spot and ETF buyers stay away.

The on-chain section tells a more specific story. Monthly realized cap change rose from 1.2% to 1.3%. Hot capital share held at 20.3%. Short-term holders' supply, measured against long-term holders' supply, moved from 14.5% to 14.7%. All three sit above their high bands, the upper edge of what Glassnode treats as a normal range for each metric. In the report's words, "Capital keeps moving into newer hands".

Profit measures cooled at the same time. Percent of supply in profit slipped from 70.1% to 68.2%. The realized profit to loss ratio fell from 0.8 to 0.4, a 41.8% decline, which means holders locked in fewer gains compared with losses. Basic network use also eased: fees fell 10.1% to $202.7K and entity-adjusted transfer volume fell 10.6% to $4.6B, while daily active addresses rose 0.5% to 635.8K.

The metrics: how realized cap and hot capital are built

Market cap multiplies every coin by today's price. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain instead. When a coin that last moved cheaply changes hands at a higher price, realized cap rises by the difference. So a rising monthly realized cap change means coins are being re-priced upward as they move. Glassnode reads its current level as net capital inflow, with coins bought at elevated prices.

Hot capital share asks a narrower question: how much of that realized value sits in coins that moved recently? A high share, like the 20.3% reading, means a large slice of the network's cost basis belongs to short-term, price-sensitive holders. The supply split between newer and older holders does a similar job by coin count rather than by value. Analysts usually split the two groups by how long a coin has sat unmoved.

Percent supply in profit compares each coin's last-moved price with today's price and counts the coins that are above water. At 68.2%, roughly two thirds of coins still cost less than the current price, by this measure.

What is MVRV, and what does the ETF version show?

MVRV stands for market value to realized value. It divides market cap by realized cap. When market value is larger, holders as a group sit on paper profit; when the two get closer, that average profit margin is shrinking.

Glassnode applies the same idea to US spot ETF holdings. That ETF MVRV slipped from 1.5 to 1.4, near its low band. Glassnode said ETF holders remain in moderate profit, but their margin is narrowing. Weekly ETF netflow also improved, from -$674.9M to -$230.0M, a smaller outflow that moved back inside its normal range.

Limits: where these readings can mislead

Each of these metrics rests on assumptions about who owns which coins and why they moved. Keep these blind spots in mind before drawing conclusions.

• A moved coin is not always a sale. A holder shifting coins between their own wallets can look like a new owner, which can inflate realized cap and the short-term holder count unless entity clustering catches it.
• Clustering is an estimate. Glassnode itself notes that its exchange balances depend on address labels and its own clustering algorithms, and may miss reserves when exchanges keep addresses private.
• Bands describe history, not destiny. A reading above its high band is unusual for that metric, but it does not say what happens next.
• Averages hide spread. An MVRV or supply-in-profit figure blends very different holders, from early buyers to people who bought last week.

None of these metrics is a price signal on its own. They describe how the cost basis of the network is shifting, which is useful context and nothing more. Glassnode's own disclaimer says its data is for information and education only. Crypto prices swing sharply, and anyone holding bitcoin can lose money.

What to watch next

The interesting question is whether newer holders keep their coins or start to spend them. Watch whether the realized profit to loss ratio stays subdued, whether hot capital share drifts back inside its range, and whether entity-adjusted transfer volume picks up again. Read each metric alongside the others, and check how it is built before you trust the headline reading.

Sources

• Glassnode, 19 Oct 2026

Drafted by AI from the research and on-chain sources listed, then published automatically once checks confirmed the figures against those sources and found no copied text. Not reviewed by a person. Metrics are explained, never turned into price calls.